RESUMO
Objective:To predict and analyze the number of acute pancreatitis (AP) inpatients based on time series model, and to explore the predictive efficiency of the model.Methods:Clinical data of AP inpatients in the Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University from January 2014 to December 2019 were collected. R software was used to collect the time series of AP inpatients, and the trend and seasonal characteristics of AP inpatients from 2014 to 2018 were analyzed. Furthermore, the autoregressive moving average (ARIMA) model was established through stationarity test, model ordering and model testing steps, and the best selected model was used to predict the monthly number of inpatients in 2019 to verify its prediction efficiency.Results:A total of 3 939 AP patients were included in the study. The most common etiology for AP was cholestrogenic (48.2%), followed by hyperacylglyceremia (36.3%). The peak age of hospitalization was from 40 to 60 years old. Time series analysis showed that the number of AP inpatients increased year by year. The highest peak of the disease was from February to March, followed by September to November; and there was seasonal variation and the incidence was relatively small in summer. The established original training set sequence did not pass the stationarity test ( P=0.061), so the ARIMA model was established after it was transformed into a stationarity sequence by first-order difference. According to the criterion of minimum AIC value, ARIMA(2, 1, 1)(1, 1, 1) 12 was selected as the best model. The model was used to predict the number of AP inpatients in 2019, showing that it could better fit the trend of onset time and had good short-term prediction effect. The mean root error and absolute error were 6.8790 and 4.7783, respectively. Conclusions:The number of AP inpatients increases year by year with seasonal changes. ARIMA model is effective in predicting the number of AP inpatients and can be used for short-term prediction.
RESUMO
Objective:To evaluate the methodological quality and reporting quality of clinical practice guidelines or consensuses in the field of Chinese pancreatic diseases from 2016 to 2021, and provide reference for formulating clinical practice guidelines and consensuses in this field.Methods:VIP, Wanfang , CNKI and CBM databases were searched for articles published from January 2016 to March 2021. The main index terms were " pancreas" , " guideline" , " consensus" , and the supplementary index terms were " pancreatitis" , " pancreatic cancer" , " pancreatic head cancer" . Two researchers independently selected the literature. The appraisal of guidelines for research and evaluation (AGREE-China) was utilized to assess the methodological quality of the guidelines or consensuses, and the reporting items for practice guidelines in healthcare (RIGHT) tool was used to assess the reporting quality.Results:A total of 14 literature were included, including 7 literature on pancreatic cancer, 3 literature on acute pancreatitis, 1 literature on chronic pancreatitis and 3 literature on others. The results of the assessment by the AGREE-China tool showed that there were no document with a total score greater than or equal to 60.0 points, two with 40.0 to 59.9 points, eleven with 20.0 to 39.9 points, and one with less than 20.0 points. Among the results of RIGHT list, basic information was reported the highest(72.62%) and funding and declaration was the lowest(0).Conclusions:The methodological and reporting quality of the guidelines or consensuses on pancreatic disease in China from 2016 to 2021 are generally not high. In the process of developing domestic guidelines or consensuses on pancreatic diseases, the guideline developer should refer to AGREE-China and RIGHT to improve the quality of clinical practice guidelines or consensuses.
RESUMO
Objective:To analyze the registration status of acute pancreatitis-related clinical studies registered on the Chinese Clinical Trial Registry (ChiCTR) and USA ClinicalTrials.gov database.Methods:The ChiCTR and ClinicalTrials.gov database were searched to collect, sort and analyze the clinical studies related to acute pancreatitis registered from the establishment of the database to December 31, 2020. The clinical trials were manually grouped, and the features of clinical researches were compared based on different registered data (2007-2014 vs 2015-2020) and different financial sources (self-support, enterprise support or public support). Results:A total of 157 registered clinical studies related to acute pancreatitis have been included (ChiCTR n=99; ClinicalTrial.gov n=58). The top three areas with the greatest number of registered clinical studies were Sichuan (28.0%), Shanghai (14.6%) and Jiangsu (12.1%), totally accounting for 54.7%. There were 91 interventional studies, 41 observational studies and 25 other type studies. Masking was performed in 34 studies (21.6%). Randomized parallel controlling was performed in 84 studies (53.5%). 30 trials (19.1%) were at Ⅳ phase, and 7 trials (4.4%) were at Ⅱ or Ⅲ phase. 2007-2014 group tended to use randomized parallel controlled design (68.3% vs 45.4%, P=0.005) and randomization grouping (76.7% vs 47.4%, P=0.001). 2015-2020 group tended to use relatively large sample (72.6% vs 47.4%, P=0.002)and data management committee (53.6% vs 25.0%, P=0.001). The differences between the two groups were statistically significant. Of 92 trials from ChiCTR database, 48 were self-supported, 5 was supported by enterprise, and 38 was supported by the public. The percentage of self-support and public support was 86.9%. Conclusions:The number of acute pancreatitis-related clinical studies registered on ChiCTR was generally on the increase. Most registered studies were funded by public finances or by the researchers' institutions self. There was a lack of phaseⅡ or phase Ⅲ.